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Stories, signals & connections
Beyond the headlines
Geopolitics, the global economy and the forces shaping markets.
16 analyses · 5 themes
8 articles
The IMF’s October 2026 stability report examines tokenization’s emerging benefits and vulnerabilities. Around-the-clock access and programmable settlement are promising, but legal rights, usable liquidity and connections to traditional finance determine whether scale improves the system or amplifies its risks.
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The IMF’s October 2026 Fiscal Monitor puts tax design at the centre of the growth-versus-revenue dilemma. With global public debt projected to exceed 100% of GDP before 2030, the market question is whether governments can strengthen their economies without weakening their capacity to pay.
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The Bank of Japan will accelerate sales of its equity funds from January 2027 while keeping its policy rate at 1.25%. The consequences depend on market capacity, private demand and the difference between book value and actual selling proceeds.
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Fresh official figures show an improving primary balance alongside a large interest burden. The distinction explains what matters next for Brazilian bonds, the real and corporate financing.
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The IMF’s October 2026 assessment puts hedge funds at about $13 trillion in assets and $40 trillion in gross exposures. The risk lies not in those totals alone, but in how financing, crowded trades and withdrawals can interact across global markets.
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After decades of near-zero rates, the Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to 1.25 percent. The August 2024 carry trade unwind showed how far that shift can travel, and Japan remains the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. What changed, what it revealed, and what markets should watch.
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Central banks have been buying gold at a historic pace while the dollar still dominates reserves. Is this a retreat from the dollar, an insurance policy, or both, and how does it reach markets?
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Debt levels tell only part of the story. Refinancing, currencies and investor confidence explain how fiscal pressure reaches global markets.
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Fonlis reads public market data alongside the news. It never promises what will happen. Nothing here is a prediction or investment advice. Markets can be wrong, and every reading changes as new information arrives.
