The events ahead

1. 1.RBA cash rate target

   Compare

   The previous official rate and the size of this change in basis points; compare separately with a dated pre-decision expectation.

   Why it can matter

   Tighter-than-expected policy can support local yields and the currency; easing driven by weak growth can weigh on equities even when rates fall.

2. 2.Guidance and voting split

   Compare

   The previous statement: changed inflation language, conditions for the next move and any published dissent.

   Why it can matter

   An unchanged rate can still reset the expected path. Compare the currency with local yields before interpreting an equity move.

3. 3.Decision versus press-conference reaction

   Compare

   Market direction after the statement and after subsequent guidance, during each market's trading session.

   Why it can matter

   A reversal after the press conference can indicate that guidance mattered more than the announced rate; it does not prove causality.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.House and Senate control, separately

   Compare

   Confirmed seat totals in each chamber, remaining undecided races and the outgoing balance.

   Why it can matter

   Unified or divided control changes the legislative room for tax and spending measures. The election does not replace the president.

2. 2.Tax, spending and debt legislation

   Compare

   Proposed measures versus bills that can pass both chambers and become law.

   Why it can matter

   A credible change in deficits or Treasury issuance can affect yields; a campaign promise alone is not a fiscal change.

3. 3.Sector exposure and implementation

   Compare

   Concrete changes to healthcare, energy or technology rules; distinguish congressional legislation from executive powers.

   Why it can matter

   Sector stocks may respond differently from the S&P 500. Trade or regulatory changes still depend on the relevant legal authority.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Bank Rate

   Compare

   The previous official rate and the size of this change in basis points; compare separately with a dated pre-decision expectation.

   Why it can matter

   Tighter-than-expected policy can support local yields and the currency; easing driven by weak growth can weigh on equities even when rates fall.

2. 2.Guidance and voting split

   Compare

   The previous statement: changed inflation language, conditions for the next move and any published dissent.

   Why it can matter

   An unchanged rate can still reset the expected path. Compare the currency with local yields before interpreting an equity move.

3. 3.Decision versus press-conference reaction

   Compare

   Market direction after the statement and after subsequent guidance, during each market's trading session.

   Why it can matter

   A reversal after the press conference can indicate that guidance mattered more than the announced rate; it does not prove causality.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Job gains and prior-month revisions

   Compare

   The new payroll reading together with revisions to the previous months; avoid judging only the latest headline.

   Why it can matter

   Strong hiring offset by downward revisions gives a weaker growth signal than the headline alone and can alter the rates response.

2. 2.Unemployment and participation

   Compare

   The unemployment rate alongside labour-force participation in the same release.

   Why it can matter

   Higher unemployment from new labour-force entrants is different from rising unemployment alongside falling employment.

3. 3.Wages and hours worked

   Compare

   Monthly and annual wage growth plus average hours, where published, against previous readings.

   Why it can matter

   Cooling hiring with sticky wages creates a growth-inflation trade-off; falling hours may weaken income before job counts fall.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Certified result and governing majority

   Compare

   Confirmed seats, unresolved races and coalition requirements against the outgoing balance.

   Why it can matter

   The ability to pass a programme matters more for markets than vote share alone.

2. 2.Costed policy and legal authority

   Compare

   Tax, spending and sector proposals against funding, legislative approval and implementation dates.

   Why it can matter

   Funded, executable changes can affect sovereign risk and exposed industries; promises without a governing majority may not.

3. 3.Currency versus domestic assets

   Compare

   The listed markets in the next open session, alongside global risk sentiment.

   Why it can matter

   Different reactions can distinguish local policy concerns from a broader market sell-off, without proving the cause.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Committed finance versus pledges

   Compare

   Amounts, contributors, recipient eligibility and disbursement terms in adopted text versus earlier commitments.

   Why it can matter

   Funded commitments can change financing conditions for transition projects; a headline pledge is not cash deployment.

2. 2.Carbon-market and emissions rules

   Compare

   Adopted accounting, eligibility and implementation provisions, not negotiating drafts.

   Why it can matter

   European carbon allowances require a link to EU supply or compliance rules; a global statement does not automatically change EU allowance scarcity.

3. 3.Energy measures with a delivery path

   Compare

   Binding national measures, permits and start dates versus non-binding conference language.

   Why it can matter

   Oil demand or clean-energy investment changes require implementation; the conference alone does not establish a Brent price impact.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Monthly underlying inflation

   Compare

   Seasonally adjusted monthly core reading, where published, against the prior release and revisions; compare consensus on the same measure.

   Why it can matter

   Persistent core acceleration can challenge easing expectations and pressure rate-sensitive equities, especially if local yields also rise.

2. 2.Services versus food and energy

   Compare

   Component contributions and breadth of price increases; distinguish shelter or services persistence from a commodity spike.

   Why it can matter

   Broad services pressure usually presents a different policy problem from a temporary energy-driven headline rise.

3. 3.Annual rate versus monthly momentum

   Compare

   The year-on-year reading alongside monthly changes and the year-earlier comparison base.

   Why it can matter

   A lower annual rate with stronger monthly momentum is not necessarily a cleaner disinflation signal.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Producer prices excluding volatile components

   Compare

   Month-on-month change and revisions against the previous release; keep annual and monthly rates separate.

   Why it can matter

   Broadening producer inflation can pressure margins or feed into selling prices, but pass-through depends on demand and pricing power.

2. 2.Energy, goods and services contributions

   Compare

   Which components drove the total, rather than only the headline index.

   Why it can matter

   An energy-only jump differs from persistent services pressure for inflation-sensitive yields.

3. 3.Consumer-price follow-through

   Compare

   Subsequent consumer-price releases, not a one-for-one conversion from PPI.

   Why it can matter

   A producer-price shock becomes more relevant to monetary policy if it persists and reaches consumer prices.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Certified result and governing majority

   Compare

   Confirmed seats, unresolved races and coalition requirements against the outgoing balance.

   Why it can matter

   The ability to pass a programme matters more for markets than vote share alone.

2. 2.Costed policy and legal authority

   Compare

   Tax, spending and sector proposals against funding, legislative approval and implementation dates.

   Why it can matter

   Funded, executable changes can affect sovereign risk and exposed industries; promises without a governing majority may not.

3. 3.Currency versus domestic assets

   Compare

   The listed markets in the next open session, alongside global risk sentiment.

   Why it can matter

   Different reactions can distinguish local policy concerns from a broader market sell-off, without proving the cause.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Certified result and governing majority

   Compare

   Confirmed seats, unresolved races and coalition requirements against the outgoing balance.

   Why it can matter

   The ability to pass a programme matters more for markets than vote share alone.

2. 2.Costed policy and legal authority

   Compare

   Tax, spending and sector proposals against funding, legislative approval and implementation dates.

   Why it can matter

   Funded, executable changes can affect sovereign risk and exposed industries; promises without a governing majority may not.

3. 3.Currency versus domestic assets

   Compare

   The listed markets in the next open session, alongside global risk sentiment.

   Why it can matter

   Different reactions can distinguish local policy concerns from a broader market sell-off, without proving the cause.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.SARB repo rate

   Compare

   The previous official rate and the size of this change in basis points; compare separately with a dated pre-decision expectation.

   Why it can matter

   Tighter-than-expected policy can support local yields and the currency; easing driven by weak growth can weigh on equities even when rates fall.

2. 2.Guidance and voting split

   Compare

   The previous statement: changed inflation language, conditions for the next move and any published dissent.

   Why it can matter

   An unchanged rate can still reset the expected path. Compare the currency with local yields before interpreting an equity move.

3. 3.Decision versus press-conference reaction

   Compare

   Market direction after the statement and after subsequent guidance, during each market's trading session.

   Why it can matter

   A reversal after the press conference can indicate that guidance mattered more than the announced rate; it does not prove causality.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Certified result and governing majority

   Compare

   Confirmed seats, unresolved races and coalition requirements against the outgoing balance.

   Why it can matter

   The ability to pass a programme matters more for markets than vote share alone.

2. 2.Costed policy and legal authority

   Compare

   Tax, spending and sector proposals against funding, legislative approval and implementation dates.

   Why it can matter

   Funded, executable changes can affect sovereign risk and exposed industries; promises without a governing majority may not.

3. 3.Currency versus domestic assets

   Compare

   The listed markets in the next open session, alongside global risk sentiment.

   Why it can matter

   Different reactions can distinguish local policy concerns from a broader market sell-off, without proving the cause.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.

1. 1.Certified result and governing majority

   Compare

   Confirmed seats, unresolved races and coalition requirements against the outgoing balance.

   Why it can matter

   The ability to pass a programme matters more for markets than vote share alone.

2. 2.Costed policy and legal authority

   Compare

   Tax, spending and sector proposals against funding, legislative approval and implementation dates.

   Why it can matter

   Funded, executable changes can affect sovereign risk and exposed industries; promises without a governing majority may not.

3. 3.Currency versus domestic assets

   Compare

   The listed markets in the next open session, alongside global risk sentiment.

   Why it can matter

   Different reactions can distinguish local policy concerns from a broader market sell-off, without proving the cause.

Use dated official readings where connected; the observation period is not the publication date. A surprise requires a separate dated pre-event consensus.