A further yen policy shift is being priced

Options on the yen show rising demand for protection ahead of the meeting.

Event on Nov 2 · tomorrow

The prediction, in plain language

Slight edge

Slight edge to one side: the decision goes the way markets already expect, but nothing is settled.

Prices imply 64% for this outcome, strengthening by 4 points in 24h, with medium confidence.

What to anticipate: BoJ statement. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.

This is what market prices currently imply, not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.

Signal strength

64%

Implied probability

+4 / 24h

Confidence: Medium

Data, USD/JPY strengthened by 7 points over 24 hours, with volume above its 30-day average. Cross-checked against 3 linked markets.

Context, Rates, inflation and growth expectations are being repriced at the same time.

Interpretation, Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 58% and a signal strength of 70/100 on this event.

Uncertainty, Confidence is medium. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast, a single surprise can reverse it.

JGB 10Y

+5 bp

supports

Nikkei

+0.9%

contradicts

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