Markets are actively pricing “Atlantic hurricane season”

Reinsurers and Cat bonds have moved in the same direction over recent sessions, which is what drives this reading.

Event on Dec 6 · in 5 weeks

The prediction, in plain language

Too close to call

It is a coin flip, two scenarios, equally credible: a more severe season than average, or a milder outcome than feared.

Prices imply 50% for this outcome, weakening by 5 points in 24h, with medium confidence.

What to anticipate: Weather model update. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.

This is what market prices currently imply, not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.

Signal strength

50%

Implied probability

-5 / 24h

Confidence: Medium

Data, Reinsurers strengthened by 4 points over 24 hours, cross-checked against 3 linked markets.

Context, Carbon, insurance and agricultural markets are the fastest climate thermometers.

Interpretation, Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 52% and a signal strength of 68/100 on this event.

Uncertainty, Confidence is medium. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast, one surprise can reverse it.

Reinsurers

supports

Cat bonds

in line

supports

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