United KingdomMarkets are actively pricing “Bank of England decision”
SONIA and Gilt 2Y have moved in the same direction over recent sessions, which is what drives this reading.
Event on Nov 12 · in 11 days
The prediction, in plain language
Too close to callIt is a coin flip, two scenarios, equally credible: the decision goes the way markets already expect, or a surprise that forces prices to be rewritten.
Prices imply 55% for this outcome, weakening by 7 points in 24h, with medium confidence.
What to anticipate: Inflation print. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.
This is what market prices currently imply, not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
-7 / 24h
Confidence: Medium
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data, SONIA strengthened by 3 points over 24 hours, cross-checked against 3 linked markets.
Context, Rates, inflation and growth expectations are repriced together, often within the same hour.
Interpretation, Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 58% and a signal strength of 71/100 on this event.
Uncertainty, Confidence is medium. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast, one surprise can reverse it.
Cross-market confirmation
SONIA
+3
Gilt 2Y
in line
What could change it
- Inflation print
- Central bank statement
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