Shutdown risk is easing in bill markets
Yields on bills maturing around the deadline have normalised versus neighbouring maturities.
Event on Sep 25 · in 8 days
The prediction, in plain language
Markets say noMarkets bet the other way — they expect a political surprise.
Prices imply 36% for this outcome, stable in 24h, with medium confidence.
What to anticipate: Congressional vote. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.
This is what market prices currently imply — not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
+0 / 24h
Confidence: Medium
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data — T-bills weakened by 5 points over 24 hours, with volume above its 30-day average. Cross-checked against 3 linked markets.
Context — Political calendars move money before they move votes.
Interpretation — Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 38% and a signal strength of 58/100 on this event.
Uncertainty — Confidence is medium. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast — a single surprise can reverse it.
Cross-market confirmation
1M T-bill
−4 bp
VIX
−1.2
What could change it
- Congressional vote
- Stopgap bill text
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