Shutdown risk is easing in bill markets

Yields on bills maturing around the deadline have normalised versus neighbouring maturities.

Event on Nov 8 · in 7 days

The prediction, in plain language

Markets say no

Markets bet the other way, they expect a political surprise.

Prices imply 35% for this outcome, weakening by 5 points in 24h, with medium confidence.

What to anticipate: Congressional vote. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.

This is what market prices currently imply, not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.

Signal strength

35%

Implied probability

-5 / 24h

Confidence: Medium

Data, T-bills weakened by 5 points over 24 hours, with volume above its 30-day average. Cross-checked against 3 linked markets.

Context, Political calendars move money before they move votes.

Interpretation, Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 38% and a signal strength of 58/100 on this event.

Uncertainty, Confidence is medium. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast, a single surprise can reverse it.

1M T-bill

−4 bp

supports

VIX

−1.2

supports

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