United StatesMarkets are pricing a divided Congress
Regulation-sensitive sectors are stabilising, consistent with legislative gridlock.
Event on Nov 5 · in 4 days
The prediction, in plain language
Slight edgeSlight edge to one side: the outcome markets are betting on is confirmed, but nothing is settled.
Prices imply 59% for this outcome, stable in 24h, with medium confidence.
What to anticipate: Primaries. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.
This is what market prices currently imply, not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
+0 / 24h
Confidence: Medium
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data, Implied volatility on post-election maturities is falling in health and defence.
Context, Historically, markets favour legislative status-quo outcomes.
Interpretation, Little major regulatory change is priced in, whatever the result.
Uncertainty, An indirect, low-intensity signal; polling remains volatile.
Cross-market confirmation
Sector vol
IV contracting
What could change it
- Primaries
- Swing-state polling
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