Markets are pricing a divided Congress
Regulation-sensitive sectors are stabilising, consistent with legislative gridlock.
Event on Sep 21 · in 4 days
The prediction, in plain language
Too close to callIt is a coin flip — two scenarios, equally credible: the outcome markets are betting on is confirmed, or a political surprise.
Prices imply 55% for this outcome, strengthening by 3 points in 24h, with medium confidence.
What to anticipate: Primaries. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.
This is what market prices currently imply — not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
+3 / 24h
Confidence: Medium
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data — Implied volatility on post-election maturities is falling in health and defence.
Context — Historically, markets favour legislative status-quo outcomes.
Interpretation — Little major regulatory change is priced in, whatever the result.
Uncertainty — An indirect, low-intensity signal; polling remains volatile.
Cross-market confirmation
Sector vol
IV contracting
What could change it
- Primaries
- Swing-state polling
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