Refining margins price a slow ramp-up
Regional product cracks stay wide, implying limited near-term output.
Event on Sep 26 · in 9 days
The prediction, in plain language
Markets say noMarkets bet the other way — they expect supply loosens and prices fall back.
Prices imply 39% for this outcome, stable in 24h, with low confidence.
Treat this as a weak indication, not a forecast: confidence is low and the reading moves a lot.
This is what market prices currently imply — not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
+1 / 24h
Confidence: Low
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data — Refining margins strengthened by 4 points over 24 hours, with volume above its 30-day average. Cross-checked against 3 linked markets.
Context — Supply, storage and transport constraints dominate the price path.
Interpretation — Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 37% and a signal strength of 50/100 on this event.
Uncertainty — Confidence is low. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast — a single surprise can reverse it.
Cross-market confirmation
Refining margins
+1.8%
What could change it
- Output reports
- Import licences
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