Catastrophe bonds price a calmer-than-feared season

Spreads on catastrophe bonds have narrowed for three consecutive weeks.

Event on Nov 3 · in 2 days

The prediction, in plain language

Markets say no

Markets bet the other way, they expect a milder outcome than feared.

Prices imply 34% for this outcome, weakening by 3 points in 24h, with low confidence.

Treat this as a weak indication, not a forecast: confidence is low and the reading moves a lot.

This is what market prices currently imply, not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.

Signal strength

34%

Implied probability

-3 / 24h

Confidence: Low

Data, Cat bonds weakened by 4 points over 24 hours, with volume above its 30-day average. Cross-checked against 3 linked markets.

Context, Carbon, insurance and commodity markets are the fastest climate thermometers.

Interpretation, Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 34% and a signal strength of 51/100 on this event.

Uncertainty, Confidence is low. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast, a single surprise can reverse it.

Reinsurance

+1.4%

supports

Loading the latest headlines…