Markets are pricing a December rate cut
Rate futures now imply a 74% chance of a 25bp cut, up from 62% yesterday.
Event on Oct 7 · in 3 weeks
The prediction, in plain language
Clear favouriteMarkets clearly expect one thing: the Fed cuts rates at this meeting.
Prices imply 75% for this outcome, strengthening by 8 points in 24h, with high confidence.
What to anticipate: US CPI release. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.
This is what market prices currently imply — not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
+8 / 24h
Confidence: High
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data — The 3-month OIS swap slipped 9bp in 24h; Fed Funds futures volume ran 3.8× its average.
Context — Core inflation has cooled for four months and hiring is decelerating.
Interpretation — Markets no longer price a pause — they price the start of an easing cycle.
Uncertainty — A hot CPI on Thursday could push this back below 60%. Markets can be wrong.
Cross-market confirmation
US 2Y
−11 bp
DXY
−0.6%
Gold
in line
What could change it
- US CPI release
- Fed chair speech
- November jobs report
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