Markets expect wage growth to keep cooling
Short-dated European rates imply wage pressure fading through the next two quarters.
Event on Sep 24 · in 7 days
The prediction, in plain language
Too close to callIt is a coin flip — two scenarios, equally credible: the decision goes the way markets already expect, or a surprise that forces prices to be rewritten.
Prices imply 57% for this outcome, stable in 24h, with medium confidence.
What to anticipate: Negotiated wage index. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.
This is what market prices currently imply — not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
-1 / 24h
Confidence: Medium
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data — Euribor strengthened by 4 points over 24 hours, with volume above its 30-day average. Cross-checked against 3 linked markets.
Context — Rates, inflation and growth expectations are being repriced at the same time.
Interpretation — Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 55% and a signal strength of 63/100 on this event.
Uncertainty — Confidence is medium. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast — a single surprise can reverse it.
Cross-market confirmation
Bund 2Y
−6 bp
EU services PMI
+0.8
What could change it
- Negotiated wage index
- Flash inflation
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