United StatesMarkets are actively pricing “US inflation report”
Fed Funds futures and US 2Y have moved in the same direction over recent sessions, which is what drives this reading.
Event on Nov 20 · in 3 weeks
The prediction, in plain language
Slight edgeSlight edge to one side: inflation keeps cooling, but nothing is settled.
Prices imply 67% for this outcome, weakening by 7 points in 24h, with high confidence.
What to anticipate: Inflation print. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.
This is what market prices currently imply, not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
-7 / 24h
Confidence: High
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data, Fed Funds futures strengthened by 6 points over 24 hours, cross-checked against 3 linked markets.
Context, Rates, inflation and growth expectations are repriced together, often within the same hour.
Interpretation, Taken together, prices point to an implied probability of 71% and a signal strength of 84/100 on this event.
Uncertainty, Confidence is high. This is what prices imply today, not a forecast, one surprise can reverse it.
Cross-market confirmation
Fed Funds futures
+6
US 2Y
in line
What could change it
- Inflation print
- Central bank statement
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