Japan is being priced for another rate hike
JGB yields and the yen are both firming, a combination that usually precedes a BoJ move.
Event on Sep 18 · tomorrow
The prediction, in plain language
Slight edgeSlight edge to one side: the decision goes the way markets already expect — but nothing is settled.
Prices imply 61% for this outcome, stable in 24h, with medium confidence.
What to anticipate: BoJ policy meeting. A surprise there can flip this reading within hours.
This is what market prices currently imply — not a certainty. Readings change as new information arrives.
+1 / 24h
Confidence: Medium
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Sign inWhy this signal
Data — 10Y JGB yields are at a multi-year high; the yen gained 1.8% in two weeks.
Context — Japanese wage rounds have delivered the largest increases in decades.
Interpretation — Investors expect the end of ultra-loose policy to continue.
Uncertainty — The BoJ has surprised dovishly before. Carry-trade unwinds add volatility.
Cross-market confirmation
USD/JPY
−1.8%
Nikkei
resilient
What could change it
- BoJ policy meeting
- Tokyo inflation print
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